2011: Year of Protest World Over

A small gathering of discontented people in Tunisia sparked the fire which in turn has changed the entire Middle- East landscape in the form of protest movement (famously termed as Arab spring). Leaders, in fact, dictators like Zine El Abidine Ben Ali( Tunisia), Hosni Mubarak ( Egypt), Saleh ( Yemen) , Gaddafi (Libya) and many more either fled to other countries or killed by the mob out of sheer anger, total corruption, lack of employment, high-handedness of government officials, lack of freedom and more importantly lack of political participation of the people of the country.
It will be a folly to presume that these protests are limited to middle-East and totally violent, we have protest in developed countries like the USA (famous Occupy Wall Street protest) in Europe (by minorities like Muslims and protest against austerity derive), Even in emerging Countries like India (Anti- Corruption protest by Anna Hazare), Pro democracy protest in Wukan in China, mainly peaceful, occasionally violent due to police action.
Why people are coming to Street even when there is some form of democracy and representative governments except in Middle -East. One way to understand these protest movements is to view these movements as part of social change triggered by economic turmoil started after near recession like situation in the year 2008. There are, of course, some specific reasons which would be listed as below:
1. Economic hardship alongwith desire to have freedom in decision making.
2. International pressure by pro- democratic Western countries for regime change in Arabic countries which are still largely monarchic and lack general trust and political credibility.
3. Pro active role of media and social networking involving wide spread cascading effects through live coverage of police/army atrocity on say, peaceful protest which in turn instigate people to violently react.
4. Politically motivated, desire of army to take over power in their hand.
5. Last not the least, raising expectation of youth in terms of more job opportunity, economic freedom and failure of the State to provide the same.
Let us hope that common sense prevails and monarchy gives way to participative democracy in the Arab World.

Indian economy and Budget

Recently, the Finance Minister(FM) has tabled the budget for the year 2012-13 in the Parliament.

For many, it is an average budget with no clear cut signals towards any meaningful economic reforms.

FM had admitted that the time is not conducive for large scale reforms due to turmoil in world economy and domestic and political compulsions.( Despite hectic political rallies by Rahul Gandhi in Uttar Pradesh, one of the largest States in the country, Congress could not do well in the recently held Assembly election.)

Railway Minister has to submit his resignation to the Prime Minister for defying the wishes of TMC Supremo Mamata Banerjee, the party to which he belongs. At the time of writing this, it is learned that the President has accepted the resignation of Railway Minister. The reason being hiking the passenger fares after a long gap of eight years. This is economic price of political democracy.

On the Fiscal Front, FM had admitted that Fiscal deficit would be hovering around 5 to 5.3%. GDP growth for the next year would be around 6.9% to 7 %.

To reduce the fiscal deficit, Budget has increased the burden on common man by propsals like hiking indirect taxes( widening of tax net and rate from 10.3 % to 12.33%).

Infrastructure requires whopping Rs.50 lakh crore for the next 5 years, out of which Rs.25 lakh crore would come from Pvt. Sector. This requires political action and conducive economic reforms.

The target of Agriculture Sector( ground level credit) has hiked by Rs.1 lakh crore to Rs. 5.75 lakh crore. This is not sufficient in the wake of rise in food prices and high inflation rate in the recent past.

Overall, a political budget with no clear cut direction. Stock Market has traded in red on Monday, which also highlights the fact that changes expected at the economic front were totally ignored by the FM in his budget.

Year 2014 is crucial for Congress Govt, as there would be General election in the country.